First MLB Win Projections

After running Dimond Minds modeling program "100 times", SG over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog came up with these amazing projections:

I see you grinning already. This projection system shows the Pirates pitching to be the 7th most improved staff.

However, it also shows the Pirates at +43 runs overall from 2006 but winning +7 more games. That’s a neat trick so I guess Diamond Minds is seeing the Pirates winning 60% of their one-run games for the first time since 1993. Unfortunately, +7 — if you believe that — still means an 88 loss season.

Oh well.

Someone tell me how the Cubs are going to be +184 runs. Anybody? 75 I see.. 125 a long shot.. but 184???? Man.. I do believe Diamond Minds blew a gasket on that projection.

Take these numbers with a grain of salt, imo. Plus, it’s way too early to be projecting anything of value so I’m showing you this for entertainment value only. Besides, we didn’t have Jose Hernadez when he ran the numbers. We have to be even better now. Right?



One comment


    A comment on your rP rPA stats. Sometimes stats can be so esoteric as to be meaningless. I think this is one of those times. My favorite stat, and one that seems to hold true, is HITS PER RUNS SCORED. The better that number is, the better your record.

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