Remember these headlines about this time last year?

"Ed Eagle says Burnitz will get 30 dingers!"

"WV Newspaper: Pirates Can Compete For Wild Card."

Some folks just lose it when February starts getting close. Maybe it’s FanFest that drives them over the edge, I don’t know.

However, some folks don’t buy into the hype:

"Pirates Looking More and More McClendon’ish"

"Stats Geek: Forget 2006.."

SG over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog ran 2,000 Diamond Mind (DM) simulations last year using ZIPS, BP’s PECOTA, and DM’s own projection stats and he had figured the Pirates will lose:

— 86 with Diamond Mind’s projection disk;
— 84 using PECOTA’s projections with DM; and
— (ready for this?) 81 using ZIPS projections in DM runs.

Yes, that was the first .500 prediction I had seen since the 90’s from a decent statistical mind, as SG is.

I said we’d lose 98 punching 4 keys on a calculator.

We lost 95 of course, so I suppose I creamed all three of the projection systems using DM.

I mentioned the other day that we are looking at 89 losses this year and will finish fifth in the division as the roster stood after acquiring LaRoche.

SG’s early run using CHONE’s projections has the Pirates losing 88 (knew I read that somewhere). Since the CHONE runs were done before LaRoche was added to the mix, I assume the projection will climb several more wins.

That made me want to go back and reopen my own projection data until I pulled the DVD out and read what I wrote on the disk: "2007 Pirates Projections – Littlefield GM".

I put the disk away comfortable with my work and realizing that SG must have pushed the same buttons Dave Littlefield did when he suggested Tike Redman should bat in the three-hole a couple of years ago.. or that he should sign Burnitz and Casey last year.. or that he should make Oliver Perez an add-on to the Hernandez trade last July.. or that Nady in right-field makes sense this year, or.. well, you get the idea.

Somethings just can’t be programed into Diamond Minds SG.

Ah shucks.. Jeff Weaver’s heading to Seattle to pitch. Who would have guessed he wasn’t coming to Pittsburgh?

From the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "Patty Paytas, vice president of communications for the Pittsburgh Pirates, last night was honored as Renaissance Communicator of the Year by the Pittsburgh chapter of the Public Relations Society of America." Kudos go out to Ms. Paytas.

The Toronto Star talked about Tomo Ohka yesterday:

"While Ohka was supposedly flying from Japan to Toronto yesterday, his agent, Jim Masteralexis, indicated they had turned down two-year offers from both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals for the chance to play with a contender – or, more to the point, for a team that was going to score some runs."

I wonder if Ohka got a new screwdriver in his contract? Best of luck Tomo.

When Did Pittsburgh Become a Country Town, a guy named Sean asks.

Everyone wants to see Ryan Vogelsong’s wedding pictures. Here they are for you.

Well this makes sense. How ironic – drafted by the Pirates in 2005 and now can’t  land a starting role with LSU. So he left the team.

The Indy Indians posted their spring training schedule a few days ago. Warning – I’ve never heard of that site before so exit with caution.

Poopsburgh Pirates? Coming from a guy named Bub, no less. Seventy-seven wins is what he predicts for the Pirates. Wait.. wait.. I know where I’ve heard that name before – isn’t he the last guy to get his butt patted in the Brewers commercial last year? Yeah – yeah! That’s him! Where’s the nearest KFC?

Thanks for the shouts Pastime, BeyondTheBoxScore, Can’t Stop The Bleeding, MetsBlog (Matt – it is Jake not Lou.. hehe), and everyone else not listed.

If you made it down this far you’re due a treat. Do I hear the pitter-patter of little rumor feet making their way toward Pittsburgh from LA? I barely hear them in the wind but what I do hear says starting pitcher. Stay tuned.



  1. sgatbtf@gmail.com

    Hey Jake, those are last year’s projections. I didn’t run this year’s yet. I’m waiting for the last of the roster moves so I can try and build somewhat realistic rotations and lineups.
    BTW, if you want to help out with the Pirates’s lineup and rotation it’d be a big help.

  2. pirates7@hotmail.com

    Congrats V-Song, beautiful woman she is good to see all buccos there with their buddy. By the way i see the kipster and lovely ms. emily were trying to match. What’s up with purplish shirt kipster. Now 81 wins god i wish that would happen there’s a outside shot of that happening with the roach occupying the 4 hole. What we would need to happen for 81 wins- 1. Jack and Jose have to be in shape. 2. Jose needs go back to hitting towards RF. 3. Pitching needs to be healthy and we need to acquire a pitcher or sign Tony Armas Jr. 4. Jason Bay needs to improve on the RISP avg by at least 40 points. 5. Xavier Nady needs to play average defense at least and hit .280 20hr’s 75rbi’s.
    Now responding to that pitcher in wind that pitter-patter could that be Brad Penny. We will see.

  3. Pirate

    SG – now that is really a pretty sad endorsement for DM if it shot out an 81 win season for the Pirates last year. Yikes – I better amend this post in a hurry!

  4. pirates7@hotmail.com

    I did know that Chacon had a special buy out clause in it that he could be bought for 637,500 in spring training according to dejan mustard of the pg. PLEASE BUYOUT HIS CONTRACT DL

  5. pirates7@hotmail.com

    I didn’t know that Chacon had a special buy out clause in it that he could be bought for 637,500 in spring training according to dejan mustard of the pg. PLEASE BUYOUT HIS CONTRACT DL

  6. mollykelly@sbcglobal.net

    I am gooing to guess Escabar. The trade would be contingent ona deal with colorado for helton. Just a guess.love your work!


  7. ratt25@hotmail.com

    I didn’t see Escobar on their 40 man. Lowe, Penny, Schmidt and Tomko we’re the prominant names. I’d like Tomko or Lowe. We need a RH starter badly.

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