One fan’s Tejada dream; Winter Meetings

I received a nice email from a fan with a trade wish I thought I’d post.. Bay to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada in a swap of middle-order guys. Tejada is owed at least $16M next two while Bay is owed $13.25, so the Pirates would potentially be taking on $12.75M in payroll.

My first thought was, that’s nuts. Then I thought about all those times over the years Bay came to the plate with men on and did nothing.

The Orioles least productive position in 2007 was left field where they have Jay Payton, they have a rising shortstop by the name of Luis Hernandez, and third is covered with Melvin Mora, so Tejada is excess financial baggage at this point.

Both Tejada and Bay have had two consecutive declining offensive years and both players are considered declining in defensive performance as well.

Bay’s superior power leads to more walks while Tejada puts the ball in play, hits for better average, and strikes out far less.  Here is their xERA stats last three years along with their decline rates:

Decline
Yr AB xERA Rate
Miguel Tejada 07 514 4.89 -14.5%
06 648 5.71 -4.0%
05 654 5.95
      ave 1816 5.52
Jason Bay 07 538 4.24 -33.7%
06 570 6.40 -9.1%
05 599 7.04
      ave 1707 5.90

The Orioles also need a center field cover guru and the Pirates have Morgan, McLouth, and Duffy – one should be available to add to the kitty according to the reader.

Let’s assume for a second Huntington made this deal..

The Pirates would probably have Tejada start at third, have Pearce take over in right, deal Nady for a better lower level prospect, and let McLouth take over in left unless he’s in the package, in which case the Pirates could put out a Doumit/Bautista platoon in right shifting Pearce to left. We would just have to take our lumps defensively in that scenario.

There are obvious problems inherit with this fan’s idea, and this is the type of deal that really makes no sense for a club that is rebuilding. Neal Huntington’s chat at Baseball Prospectus today eludes to several of those reasons, which I agree with him on in theory.

Discuss his idea on the Bucco Blog forum.

How ironic. The first email I had from someone at the Opryland Hotel, site of the winter meetings, said: How the Grinch Stole Christmas! is playing there.

I emailed one person in the industry and told them to be on the watch for Mrs.
McGavock
if he’s spying in the staircases. Speaking of ghostly encounters, I swear I saw Dave Littlefield at the Opry Mills Mall today.

And one rumor said to be floating around the hotel is that Billy Beane is so worried about doing deals this winter, he put the hotel lobby Santa Claus on his payroll.

MLB is offering live video coverage of the winter meetings starting Monday at 11 AM EST.

Let the action, er.. umm.. posturing rumors begin! If I start getting unique rumors worth posting, I’ll start a new thread and post updates as the day goes on.

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