Shaking down the roster
As we continue to guestimate Huntington’s rebuilding plans here, I thought I would show you a few mild stats.
The idea is to get a feel for who is producing on the roster and where.
I’ve already shown you some interesting stats on Jason Bay when he bats against a team in the hunt and this takes it all one step further.
Below are two graphs and each one shows the combined productivity achieved by Adam LaRoche, Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady.
The top graph shows their combined stats at PNC Park in 2007 in the #3, #4, and #5 holes. The bottom graph shows their combined stats in those same batting order slots in away games.
The "act" row shows you what the actual production was and the "norm" row shows you a ‘normalized’ view of 550 at bats.
Specifically, look at runs produced, rbis achieved, home runs strikeouts, and walks.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO 3 act 95 13 26 8 0 3 15 12 0 30 norm 550 75 151 46 0 17 87 69 0 174 4 act 302 48 85 19 0 11 51 33 5 67 norm 550 87 155 35 0 20 93 60 9 122 5 act 199 25 58 14 0 5 37 10 0 36 norm 550 69 160 39 0 14 102 28 0 99
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO 3 act 97 10 19 1 0 3 9 4 0 25 norm 550 57 108 6 0 17 51 23 0 142 4 act 284 40 69 15 0 13 44 33 4 70 norm 550 77 134 29 0 25 85 64 8 136 5 act 253 29 68 16 2 7 35 25 0 70 norm 550 63 148 35 4 15 76 54 0 152
The three best power hitters on the club, who combined to hit in the #4 hole 98% of the at bats at PNC, mustered the equivalent of a 87 run, 93 rbi, season. On the road they managed just 83% of that.
Now that’s sad.
The Pirates were the only NLCD team to not have at least one player reach 90 runs and 90 rbis. In fact, we didn’t have one player who got 90 in either, much less one 80 run guy. The year ended up with the biggest power outage in Pittsburgh since the year Barry Bonds made his debut in 1986.
But take it a step further.. continue looking at the top graph and you’ll notice the #3 production included a 32% strikeout rate. 32%!!
While I agree with the basic principle that you want your best power hitter in the four slot and then the next two power hitters in the three and five with the higher strikeout guy in the three hole, 33% is off the charts, especially playing at PNC Park. Manto should have been stressing more contact in the 30% at bats these men had in that slot over the season at home.
There are some good numbers that show up however – the equivalent of 46 doubles from the three hole is sweet and the 11.5% average walk rate in the three and four holes means opposing teams just walked our hotter hitters one in ten times despite a large park. That set up shop for the five hitter who, as you can see, benefited in rbi production, albeit the guys behind him rarely scored him.
Before you look at the bottom graph you better go get a puke bag. We’re talking disaster and one of the main reasons why this club played .383 baseball on the road – there’s very little production other than a few more home runs and walks.
Normally I would say something at this point about a very young club on the road having more difficulty scoring runs, but Nady, Bay, Wilson, Sanchez, and LaRoche hardly comprise what I would call a young club. Nady, Sanchez, and LaRoche all played for large market teams and are street savvy.. Wilson and Bay have been around the block too now.
Simply put, Littlefield’s current roster is made up of the wrong type of players – they are all complimentary at best (low OBP, low batting average on balls in play, and few gap hitting guys). But I suppose that’s what marginal-to-fringe means when you only have a few impact players, none of whom are strong independent impact players.
And the away stats are also suggestive of an out of control clubhouse with the ‘who cares – let’s go find a party’ attitude – better known as hangover blues.
Now, as Huntington rebuilds he knows he has one gap hitter in McCutchen for center, a potential gap hitter in Walker for third, if he chooses to keep Sanchez he would have a spray hitter at second, he might choose to keep LaRoche with his power and glove at first, leaving both outfield corners, a catcher, and short as his needs.
For now I’m going to assume Bixler is average-marginal to fringe but let’s assume either Bixler or Shelby Ford step up and man short by 2010, and I’m going to also assume Paulino will be classified marginal and an upgrade looked for, plus at least one top of the order starter.
Since Huntington can’t wait 4+ years for a receiver to get polished, this will have to be one of his trade targets while rebuilding. I’ve mentioned no-glove, great-bat Jeff Clement numerous times since he’s blocked in the Mariners organization, and no-bat, great-glove Jeff Mathis with the Angels is another potential target (Angels also need a power right hand bat like Bay). A free agent signing in 2009 – 2010 is possible but unlikely, and Lerud probably isn’t going to cut the grade by then.
The two outfield corners are going to be tougher to fill and will have to eventually come from the free agent ranks and/or potential trades. We’ll look into this more over the next week along with pitching.
I would also guess Huntington would probably love 3B Pedro Alvarez to fall to him in the 2008 draft allowing him to move Walker back behind the plate or to another position.
That very well may happen since southpaw Brian Matusz (Univ. of San Diego) should be ranked #1 in the nation in the draft and a perfect target for the Rays. But we’ll be more than happy to take Matusz if he falls. Either player could be in Pittsburgh by 2010 with the edge to Matusz, I would guess.
Still, we’re talking 2010 – 2011 before all this rebuilding finally starts coming together so don’t get too antsy.
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I think Walker will be moved back to catcher. His power numbers don’t translate to a corner spot. His bat at catcher is above average. There are several good players blocked at the major league level. Huntington will be very active this off-season. Bay will be gone, Jack will also for the right deal, and Neal can’t sya that anybody is untouchable, including Snell and Gorzo. I don’t think Bixler will be our solution at short, but a good utility type. I still like Chin-Lung Hu from the Dodgers for shortstop. Maybe Bay for him and Kershaw or Kemp. That would free Jack up for a trade for pitching (Jurrigans?). I for one am excited about the rebuilding. I don’t feel that this roster is close to anything resembling competing and Littlefield isn’t the one making decisions this winter. I know the drafting and development of young players will be a must to be competitive in the future, but Huntington’s moves this winter could lay the ground work for our losing streak disappearing. Not in 2008 though.
With Jose Guillen going to free agency the M’s will need Jason Bay. So Bay for Balentin and Clement. Looks even to me both teams get what they need the Pirates get a young catcher and young OF to start the rebuilding process.